Plague Journal (49): The Political Outlook

So some of the "models" are now suggesting we can expect higher rates of death in the coming weeks due to the many states relaxing their restrictions. With nearly 70,000 deaths at this point and a daily average of over 2000, we can surely expect to hit the 100,000-mark long before the end of the month.

I mention all this only to set the background for the coming presidential election, which may turn out to be the most interesting and unpredictable referendum in my lifetime.

I saw a television ad for Donald Trump on TV last night. I was watching Andy Griffith reruns on one of those classic-TV stations (like ya do). The Andy Griffith show, you may recall, was a loving tribute to small-town life, to community, and was extraordinarily popular among white suburbanites in the 60s who were feeling nostalgic about the good ol' days. 

Now, I had the TV muted at the time because, well, commercials (doesn't everybody mute 'em?). But I could see nevertheless that the theme of the Trump campaign ad was, "American Comeback." 

Obviously, "Keep America Great," which was going to be the theme, had fallen out of favor. This ad showed that Donald Trump was not going to run a campaign based on his "perfect" response to the coronavirus, but on his leading of an economic resurgence in the outbreak's aftermath. Of course, that resurgence hasn't happened yet, and there's no certainty it will, but then no successful presidential campaign has ever been reasoned and realistic. Successful campaigns are aspirational, and Trump is associating himself with what is probably the primary aspiration of America at this time: the aspiration to get back to normal.

But in order to associate himself with this aspiration, he has to carefully disassociate himself from the "cautionists" like Dr. Fauci, who say it's too soon to lift the restrictions.

The question is (or at least one of the questions), how much will the loosening of restrictions lead to increased infection-rates and, down the road a little ways, increased deaths? We're at about 2000 deaths per-day now. If that rate continues through May, we will have 130,000 dead from COVID-19. That's already a far cry from President Trump's current prediction of 80-90 thousand. But what if the month of June brings an uptick to 3000 per day (as the CDC models suggest might happen). That would bring the total figure well north of 200,00o by the end of June, with the presidential campaign season not even truly begun.

That not implausible event would form the backdrop to the ensuing campaign for the White House. 

• Trump: the Great Comeback has begun under my leadership. Vote for me so that it can continue.
• Biden: many more people have died than should have because of the Trump policy, which only serves the monied interests. Vote for me to protect you better.

Now, both of these campaign themes are a kind of tightrope walking. There's danger on every side. If the economy is not yet rebounding, Trump will find a way to blame the Democratic governors, the Chinese, the "Deep State," and the "Fake News media." This is red meat for his True Believers, but he will have to reach beyond that coterie to get himself elected. will this message do the trick?

Of course much can change between now and then. Will Americans come to see the lockdown as a misguided experiment that failed, and if so, will they associate that failure with the president? Will Biden be able to align himself with the "cautionists" without being painted as an enemy of economic freedom?

My gut tells me that the dynamics of this election will change quickly, making many of these predictions obsolete in a hurry. But my gut also tells me, at this admittedly very early stage, that Trump is going to win re-election.