On Electoral Folk Tales

 One trope that has already emerged in this election cycle, coming from Trump and his cadre, is that if Trump loses it will be because the Dems cheated. Trump has been laying the groundwork for this explanation for some time now, and I'm hearing it from his loyal followers all the time.

It starts with the notion that there is no way, no way at all, that a majority of American voters would vote for Biden/Harris. And if the polls seem to say otherwise, that's because the polls, every last one of them, are biased. That can't be authentic.

A corollary to this view is that there is a "silent majority" of voters out there who aren't responding to the pollsters, so aren't getting counted. This is a sizeable enough group as to actually overcome the 7% lead that Biden is currently enjoying. The people who believe this also believe it's what happened in the last election. The polls showed a landslide for Clinton, they say, but the uncounted silent majority showed up on election day and swung it to Trump.

This amounts to an electoral folktale that has no basis in reality. Polls were quite accurate in the last election. The final polls before election day showed Clinton winning the popular vote by 2 or 3 percentage points, and that's what happened. Her lead had been up around 7 points in August, where Biden's is now, but Trump chipped away at it in the last couple of months of the campaign.

That could happen again, of course, but there are some differences this time around:

• Clinton made some huge tactical errors, failing to campaign in some key states that she thought were in the bag. Trump poured time and money into these states and won their electoral college votes. Don't expect Biden/Harris to make the same mistake.
• Trump's support has eroded in some key demographics (suburban women, retired people, et al.). In a close race, this can make a difference.
• Clinton had been thoroughly demonized over the years by her political opponents. She was widely disliked. Biden has nowhere near the same negatives.
• There are far fewer undecideds this time around. There were a lot of people last time who voted for Trump simply because they feared a Clinton presidency, not because they liked Trump. Well the dislike of Trump has intensified, and there is far less fear of a Biden presidency in general. Some may say there ought to be, but there just isn't.

Trump now has three months to so demonize Biden and Harris that a lot of people who really don't like him will nevertheless hold their proverbial nose and vote for him again.

It's just a guess, but I don't think that's going to happen. I think the election will be fairly close, but will result in a Biden win. But here's where the next problem lies. Trump has already convinced his true believers that a Biden win will automatically be tainted. It must mean the ballots were tampered with, the process was compromised, they'll say.

Given this widespread belief, I think the Trump campaign will be intensively looking for ways to declare miscounts in key states. Anybody who remembers the "hanging chads" of 2000 (Bush v. Gore) better prepare for a repeat on steroids! This coming election won't be over in a day or a week, but may take months of adjudication along with street theater demonstrations, etc. Hold on to your hats!