This article from Sabato's Crystal Ball give plenty of reasons for supporters of Joe Biden to feel very optimistic. In state after state Biden is outperforming Clinton's 2016 numbers, more often than not by significant margins. The article also shows that the Electoral College numbers lean strongly in Biden's favor as well. Bottom line, it will take a significant new development to impact these trends. Election day is still 5 weeks out, but Biden-backers should feel encouraged.
And then of course we have the first debate this evening. I usually look forward to these things about as much as a visit to the dentist, but this time I'm actually very curious. What I expect is for Trump to be aggressive in his digs at Biden and even Biden's family, hoping to goad him into an unscripted moment, which is exactly what Biden's team wants to avoid. I expect Biden to remain calm, but parlay one of Trump's attacks into an opportunity to deploy some pre-planned zinger: a "there-he-goes-again" moment. This will be widely considered the winning sound-byte of the debate. The media will assign Biden the victory.
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From the LA Times:
According to pollsters, most debates don’t actually matter much. Post-debate bumps and bounces tend to fade quickly. That’s probably bad news for President Trump, who needs to erase his substantial deficit in the polls. That will be tough for him, since he declined to prepare for the debate, and his instinct is usually to entertain voters he already has in his column. Biden has every incentive to debate the way he has campaigned: by staying in the background and letting Trump make the case against himself.
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