I think Trump is going to make this a closer race than the polls are presently showing. That's just a guess. It's not based on some deep analysis of the polling numbers. I've got a 50-50 chance of being wrong on that.
But what I think is that much of America has made up its mind. The undecideds are fewer this year, which means a smaller pool from which the candidate can draw the votes he needs to expand his election-day tally. And it is Trump, more than Biden, who desperately needs to do that.
Now he can try to capture those as yet undecided voters by reassuring them that he's a safe bet. That he's not the crazy man that the media depicts. But at the same time he needs to fire up his base, and the only way he knows to do that is to be, well, that crazy man.
And the days are counting down. Certainly the debates could change the dynamics, as could some sort of October surprise. But I don't think simply barnstorming the country and calling Joe Biden juvenile names is really going to move the needle. Trump's trusty 43% may love it, but that sort of thing won't expand his support.
Unless . . .
If Trump continues to hammer into place a depiction of Biden as some sort of doddering old fool and tool of the far left, and then if during the debates Biden says or does something that can be construed as a confirmation of that depiction . . . well, that's Trump's bet, that's his gameplan. Set the trap, then let Biden step into it.
It could work. Biden's carefully controlled and scripted public appearances--along with their infrequency so far--will tend to bolster the plausibility of Trump's depiction. And who would be surprised if in the debates Biden didn't provide his opponent with several embarrassing soundbites that go viral in the MAGAsphere?
That, along with an Electoral College gameplan, might just win it for Trump.
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