Joe Biden's lead in the RCP polling average is now at 7.6%. This is down 3 percentage points from its high a couple of weeks ago, but still at the high end of the zone that Biden has occupied for much of the year. In other words, this decline may be a regression toward the mean rather than the start of a collapse in Biden's support. Recent polls (with polling periods dating from October 14) have varied from Biden by 2-3% (IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen) to 5 other polls at 9-10%.
As of this morning, just over 42 million Americans have already voted. That number increased by more than 10 million in just one day, so the 2016 record of 51 million early voters will soon be bested.
Meanwhile, we gear up for another televised debate tonight. The 3rd debate has traditionally been all about foreign policy, but tonight's will be an exception. I'm a little disappointed about that, since I believe we do not discuss foreign policy enough nor do we know much about what our country's policies actually are. In addition, Trump would have had at least one positive achievement to brag about here (in the Middle East), and we might have had an interesting discussion about America's military deployments around the world.
Fun fact: according to one poll anyway, 4% of the people who voted for Clinton last time will be voting for Trump this time. On the other hand, 10% who voted for Trump last time are switching to Biden this time. In that alone we may see the writing on the wall for this election.
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Read also:
The Foreign Policy Choice This November
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