30 Days and Counting

Yesterday's RCP Average of the most recent ten national polls gives Biden a lead of 7.8%. Only one of these polls has a post-debate polling period, and that one has Biden's lead at only 3%. I do suspect that will be an aberration though. In the next couple of days many more polls will weigh in, and I expect the average to continue around 7%, where it's been for many months.

Given that these recent polls vary between a low of 3 and a high of 13%, I was wondering which polling outfit is considered the most reliable. Looking at the FiveThirtyEight ranking, it seems that Emerson College has the best grade (A-) among the pollsters represented on the RCP list. Emerson's most recent poll gave Biden a 4% lead.

Another factor that could affect the polling, I suppose, is the recent hospitalization of Donald Trump with COVID-19. Could it sway some undecideds into the Biden camp? We will have to wait and see.

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See also:

Tbe Polls Are All Right