Biden's lead in the RCP Polling Average is now at 6.6%, up by half-a-point since yesterday morning. The most recent three polls, which cover the last 3 to 5 days of September, put Biden's lead at 8, 9 & 8 points.
Meanwhile, over at Sabato's Crystal Ball, they're now saying that as of now Biden has secured leads in enough states to give him the Electoral College victory. Such guessing is based on state-level polling, and a few of those polls are bound to prove inaccurate, but probably only a few.
The president is locked in the prison of his own character. He is reported to have said he felt good about his performance at the Tuesday evening debate, and that it was "fun." That says as much about him as anything else.
His problem (electorally speaking): he needs to get people to dislike him less, so that their dislike of him does not override their mistrust of Biden. But that dislike is deeply rooted, based on innumerable exposures. It is more deeply rooted than their mistrust of Biden, which is merely cerebral.
That analysis is merely my gut feel, nothing scientific or data-driven. If roughly 10% of the electorate is still undecided, it's because they're torn between these two poles--a deep dislike of one candidate, and mistrust of the other. The former is an emotional response, visceral, while the latter is merely political. It is between these two poles that they waver. Something, some event, some "October surprise," could tip the scales one way or another. It's my guess that in the end this cohort will split three ways: for Trump, for Biden, and a large segment for neither. But Trump needs to win nearly all of them if he is to have a chance in this contest.
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See also: Richard North Patterson's Biden Won the Debate. America Lost. Which includes this gem:
Most of all, Biden won because no person whose judgment isn’t warped by hate and fear could watch Trump and see a normal person they would want for a neighbor, coworker, or friend—let alone as a president to whom they would entrust with the future of their family or their country.
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