- Pollsters, all of yuz (all except the Trafalgar guy) need to go back to polling school or something. Give me a break, Nate Silver. You guys stink at what you do.
- Also, my "License to Pundit" is hereby officially revoked.
- The President's speech last night was, unsurprisingly, banal, self-serving, devoid of logic.
- Although it's not officially in the bag, it appears that Susan Collins has won her Senate bid in Maine. After a gazillion utterly and almost exclusively negative ads attempting to destroy her character, over a period of months, paid for by out-of-state organizations, this result at least makes me happy.
- We may wind up with another popular vote/Electoral College split. Unfortunate, that. Is a battle to abolish the EC the next big fight?
- Whoever wins this thing, we will be ok. Don't let the doomsayers get you down!
All that having been said, there is still a path for Biden to win this thing. Biden has 227 Electoral College votes. OK, applying the strange and mysterious voodoo known as math, it looks like 43 more are necessary for him to secure victory. Among the states still in play, according to the New York Times map, Biden presently leads in these three:
- Nevada - 6 votes
- Arizona - 11 votes
- Wisconsin - 10 votes
Giving these to Biden, he now stands at 254 in the EC. Only 16 more needed. They can come from this pool:
- Michigan - 16
- Pennsylvania - 20
- North Carolina - 15
- Georgia - 16
Pennsylvania seems out of reach. Michigan is still in reach though. Georgia and North Carolina are closer, but there are also far fewer votes left to count. If Biden were to win North Carolina alone, his total in the EC would be 269, a tie! And a tie, as we know, moves the venue of this election into the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets one vote, and the Republicans presently hold the edge there.
So Biden has to win one of the other three states. Do I think it's going to happen? Who knows? I'm giving up on the prognostication game.
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