Well, it's almost Political Derby Day in America, and I'm looking forward to the horse race. In anticipation of which, just to make it a little more fun, I've made my own utterly inconsequential and thoroughly unscientific predictions. This involved looking at the polls for all the contested states, taking into account the results in 2016 and glancing also at the other statewide races (if any), and consulting the con trails in the sky on the night of the last full moon. Given all this, I have carefully (i.e., carelessly) ascertained which state will fall to which candidate.
It all tallies up to a landslide for Biden in the Electoral College:
Biden 351, Trump 187
But that does seem a little extravagant, don't you think? So I decided to not be so optimistic about Florida and my home state of Pennsylvania. Moving these 49 EC votes over to the Trump column, the totals now are:
Biden 302, Trump 236
But I was still unsure of Georgia and North Carolina, which I had placed in the Biden column. Feeling suddenly cautious, I moved their 31 votes from Biden to Trump, and this is where it stood:
Biden 271, Trump 267
Here's the rundown of states currently considered tossups and how, after a flurry of scientific coin-tossing, I predict they'll turn out:
For Biden: For Trump:
Arizona (11) Iowa (6)
Maine 2nd district (1) Ohio (18)
Michigan (16) Texas (38)
Minnesota (10) Florida (29)
Nebraska 2nd district (1) Georgia (16)
Nevada (6) North Carolina (15)
New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20)
Note: if I'm wrong about Maine's 2nd District and Nebraska's 2nd District, the EC winds up in a 269-269 tie. That would throw things into the House of Reps, where each state would get 1 vote. At present, Republicans control 26 states, so Trump would win and retain the presidency. Just so you know, this outcome seems incredibly unlikely.
Bottom line, who knew that Biden's path to victory would include losing Ohio, Texas, Florida, Georgian, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania! Which tell me one thing: Biden's got plenty of cushion. Biden wins, probably by a significantly wider margin than I'm suggesting here.
As for the popular vote, I'll go with Biden 54%, Trump 44%. [The remaining 2% were those tossed in the trash by a cabal of Deep State Mail Carriers (TM)]
So there you have it. All this involves the volatile witchcraft called math, so don't try this at home without a license. As I watch the returns on Tuesday night I'll be taking a sip of my Tullamore Dew each time I get a state right (and two sips when I get one wrong!). Happy Election Night!
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