Plague Journal (14): Running the numbers

Over the last two weeks, deaths from the COVID-19 virus in the U.S. have doubled every 3 to 4 days (I think the number is probably closer to 3 than 4). As of the end of March, the death toll in the U.S. was almost exactly 4000. Meanwhile, in an uncharacteristically somber announcement, the president yesterday warned that the next two weeks were going to be very hard. I've heard others say the next 2 to 4 weeks would be very hard . . . but who really knows how long the "hard" will last?

If over the next two weeks the doubling-period is every 3 days (a slightly pessimistic scenario, but by no means out of the question), then on April 15 the death toll from the virus would stand somewhere around 128,000. If the doubling period is every 4 days (a slightly optimistic scenario), the toll would be above 60,000. If that same doubling rate of 4 days continues all through the month of April, the toll would climb above 500,000 by the end of the month.

Now, the doubling-rate in the world in the past couple of weeks has been about every 6 days (although we know these statistics are skewed by the fact that China has almost certainly undercounted their toll). So let's say, being optimistic, that after 2 weeks the doubling rate in the U.S. suddenly slows to match this same 6-day pace. That change would result in a death-toll around 300,000 by the end of the month.

All this is to say that, even given a very positive scenario, the range of deaths quoted by the president (100,000 to 240,000) is probably optimistic.  I'm guessing the number is going to be above the upper end of that range. I hope I am completely and embarrassingly wrong about that.