Plague Journal (20): Tentatively encouraged

Are the number leveling off?

It sure looks that way. According to my utterly unofficial spreadsheet (I input the numbers from Worldometer at 8:00 each evening), the daily death-toll peaked on Friday at around 1500, and in the 3 days since has been between 1000-1300. Meanwhile, Governor Andrew Cuomo reports a similar leveling even in NYC.

Now, looking at Italy and China as our examples, the "plateau" period can last a while before we get to see an actual decline. It should also be noted that in both China and Italy and, it appears, New York City, this plateau comes about 20 days after serious physical distancing sets in.

Of course it's still too soon to draw any conclusions. For one thing, there may be a slowdown in reporting over the weekends, so that might account for some of the declines of the first two of those three days. But the same phenomenon is reflected in my own state, New York State, many other individual states, as well as the nation as a whole.

Let's call it tentatively encouraging.

Update: Looking at the numbers now at 1:15 this afternoon, I see evidence that my faint hint of optimism may have been overstated. This looks like a significant spike in the numbers.