Plague Journal (52): a dysfunctional national conversation

Not too long ago the CDC recommended that before states began reopening their public places there should be a downward trajectory in the infection rate over a 2-week period. I have no idea as to the pros and cons of this recommendation from an epidemiological perspective, but I have yet to hear of an alternative. That is, I have yet to hear an epidemiological alternative. The only alternative argument is an economic one, which goes something like this: screw the science, we need to get people back to work. 

I have thought from the beginning of this so-called lockdown that the decision about lifting it would be a difficult one. The infection rate and death rate from the virus have pretty clearly plateaued, and most of America has been at this plateau for a couple of weeks now. No one can really say when we might move from the plateau to a downward trajectory, and no one really wants to wait that long. The governor who guesses wrong in this situation (favors the economic argument too soon, or dismisses it for too long) will probably say farewell to a future in politics. 

The other problem is, loosening the restrictions now may actually move us from the plateau to an upward trajectory again, triggering another shutdown. This makes the case for a very gradual lifting of restrictions, which most states are doing, I think. But for those who have adopted the "Open Now" argument, it's far too gradual. So there's a bubbling frustration in the electorate. The political parties hope to take advantage of that frustration by putting the animus on the other party. It's their fault! The rhetoric of us vs. them is going to be flying back and forth with reckless abandon.

It occurs to me that none of this is helpful or particularly rational. Perhaps the crisis is revealing the deep dysfunction in our democratic processes. Maybe it is a conversational dysfunction. As a nation, the way we discuss these matters begin with a preset of antagonism toward the other side. It's all gotcha statements and no dialogue. In such a scenario, rationality is the first casualty.