The two conventions are over (I watched neither of them) and now we enter the final two months of the campaign for president. Generally speaking, Biden seems to be outperforming Clinton in 2016, but not by a lot. Trump may be gaining ground in some of the swing states, and there is a general sense that the violence and rioting in places like Kenosha are driving concern over "law and order" issues, a concern which is thought to benefit Trump and not Biden.
In truth, the left has never been confident about this election. Left-leaning folks I've talked to seem to be preparing themselves for an election night letdown. Meanwhile, the Trump-friendly commentators in the media, along with those on my Facebook feed, are displaying great confidence. Although they can point to no data to prove it, they have a sense that things are swinging in their direction. Roger Kimball, for example, says if the election were held today, Trump would win in a landslide! He offers no evidence in support of such optimism, but he's feelin' it!
I don't think there's any commentator on the Left who feels that level of confidence. Nathan Robinson at the Guardian is more typical. It's not even cautious optimism. It's worry.
And as Kimball notes, a landslide will be necessary to avoid a litigated outcome. This, my gut tells me, is what we're actually in for. A close election, with legal challenges and charges of corruption dominating the airwaves for weeks and months afterward. Can you say, worst case scenario?
I'm going to use this space to try and track the ups and downs of the next two months, simply as a way to keep myself informed and think through the process.
No comments:
Post a Comment