Two new polls dropped yesterday, with Biden ahead by 4 and 5 points. This is an improvement over the most recent polls (except Rasmussen), causing Biden's lead in the RCP Polling average to narrow slightly. Is it the start of a trend?
In most of the key states that are considered toss-ups in the polling thus far (representing 191 Electoral College votes) Biden seems to have a small within-the-margin-of-error lead. Supposing that Trump will win all the states in which he currently holds a polling lead beyond the margin-of-error (which never happens, but supposing), he would still have to win 45 of the 191 toss-ups, while Biden only needs to win 48 of them.
That's why I think this election is Biden's to lose. Of course some of those states that currently lean red or lean blue will in the end tip the other way, but assuming they roughly cancel each other out, that still means Trump has to win the lion's share of the toss-ups, and right now the polling favors Biden in many of those states.
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See also: How the Fear of Authoritarianism is Breaking American Politics
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