Tuesday, October 20, 2020

14 Days and Counting

 Two weeks to go, and Joe Biden maintains an 8.9% lead in the RCP polling average, with no new national polls issued yesterday. His average lead in the battleground states, however, has narrowed to 4.1%.

While most of these national polls are remarkably consistent, there is one pollster that frequently produces results that are much more favorable to Donald Trump. Trafalgar Group sees Trump leading in some of the battleground states and right now they're predicting an Electoral College win for the president. The difference, according to this article, is the way they account for social-desirability bias. It's worth noting that Trafalgar got things right in the last election.

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