Biden's lead in the RCP polling average now sits at 9.4%, up slightly from yesterday.
It seems to me that this election is over. There is no sign of a changing mood in the electorate. Things seem settled. It's just that a sufficient number of people are simply tired of Trump, and "tired of" is not a feeling that can be reversed by yet more of Trump. In other words, nothing Trump can say or do will make people less tired of him. Once you decide that "enough is enough," more of what you've had enough of is not going to help.
That's why I say this election is functionally over. The countless polls are not some vast conspiracy of lies. Only events from outside the Trump campaign can change the trajectory of this election now, such as Biden falling seriously ill or something. I will not be surprised at all if the final count shows Biden with something like a 54-46 lead or better. Given the polling, that's a cautious estimate.
The next 18 days the candidates will continue to exchange fire, but the people working in the White House are now planning their exit strategies. Republicans will be honing their talking points as an opposition party, and many will be trying hard to distance themselves from the imploding administration. A Democratic Party takeover of the Senate now seems inevitable too.
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