Joe Biden's lead in the RCP polling average dropped to 9.2%, after hovering above 10% for the past week. The drop was caused by the release of the latest Rasmussen poll, which showed Biden ahead by only 5%. The Rasmussen polls have been the most erratic in this election season, ranging from -1% to +12% for Biden in just the past few weeks. Most other pollsters produce far more consistent results.
It does seem that the bump enjoyed by Biden since the first (and now it appears only) presidential debate has dissipated somewhat. I wouldn't be surprised if his lead fell back to 7-8%, which has been the sweet-spot for much of the year.
It should be noted that the battleground states are much closer, though in almost all of them Biden enjoys a polling lead. Several, though, are within the margin of error. Biden's lead in Florida is 2.7% and in Arizona 3%. Florida is infamous for close races, with the Republican often pulling it out in a squeaker, while Arizona has been a solidly Republican state for many years. Georgia is another typically Red state in which Biden has lately been leading by a slight margin. If Biden were to win Georgia and Florida, for instance, that would be a very bad sign for the Trump campaign.
* * *
As of the 11th, 5 states had already reached 20% of their turnout in 2016 through early voting. Early voting this years is outstripping 2016 by a margin of 6 to 1. [U.S. Elections Project]
* * *
Read Also:
No comments:
Post a Comment