Tuesday, October 13, 2020

21 Days and Counting

 Joe Biden's lead in the RCP polling average stands at 10.2%. 

Much of the news today is about the Barrett hearing in the Senate. It seems to have sucked up all the oxygen, so that all the reporting on the latest vacuities from each candidate is reduced to a distant roar.

The American voter is used to vacuities, of course, and only the true-believers attend to the words flowing endlessly from these two campaigns. One of the joys of voting early is that from that point on you don't have to give a good god damn about what either of them say. From now on it's just waiting for the blessed end to come.

Well, I think a lot of people feel that way, but maybe that's just me projecting how I feel. 

* * *

Biden seems to be up by about 7% in the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I'm not sure what that's worth, to tell you the truth, but I'm assuming the pollsters aren't making the same mistake this year that they did last time: underestimating the proportion of White non-college voters. Perhaps they will be off again, as they were last go-round, but I suspect it will be for different reasons. For eample, they might actually be overestimating those voters this time around. In any case, if Biden were to win all three of those states, the Electoral College victory is almost guaranteed.

* * *

Read also:

If Biden Were a Republican

How the staffers at Reason magazine are voting

Democratic Pandering 101

The Orwell Hearing: Dems Warp Meaning of Court Packing

No comments: