Biden's lead stands at exactly 10% in the RCP polling average. England's The Guardian commissioned a poll (not included in the RCP average) which puts Biden's lead at 17%. That's clearly an outlier and no one believes the margin will be that great.
Donald Trump held a campaign rally the other day in Florida which seemed to be conducted as if there was no such thing as COVID-19. It is the peculiar conceit of the Trump campaign to pretend that the virus has been defeated and that our masks can be discarded with a jubilant cry of victory. This, I am quite sure, is a political mistake (setting aside the obvious health consequences).
Joe Biden is running as the rational candidate, the sane and reasoned and reassuringly boring candidate. Trump may challenge this conceit by suggesting that Biden is a closet-radical, but few beyond his loyal following truly believe that. What's more, Trump continues to play into Biden's hand, confirming his basic critique, by his often deranged midnight tweeting and his mask-free rallies.
It seems to me that Trump is more interested in soaking up the adulation of his crowds than in running a winning presidential campaign. He wants to seethe, to blame, to work the crowds, to wallow with them in resentment and victimhood, but not to be president of the United States.
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See Also:
The 8 States that Will Decide the Election
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