Joe Biden's lead in the polls continued to expand yesterday, and now stands at 9.7% in the RCP average. These recent polls have been remarkably consistent. In the last 8 of them, covering polling periods that go back to the first of the month, Biden's average lead is nearly 11%, with a variance between 8-16%.
Biden's lead is also promising on the state-by-state level. RCP suggests that the states either solidly Biden's or leaning that way add up to 226 Electoral College votes, while states that remain toss-ups equate to 187 votes. Biden would only have to win, then, 44 of those toss-up votes in order to secure the Electoral College.
We can assume that a few of those states that are currently leaning toward Biden may wind up won by Trump, but by the same token that a few states leaning toward Trump will be won by Biden. Assuming that exchange is roughly a wash, Biden's pathway to victory could be achieved by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, 3 states in which his polling lead hovers between 5-7%. Or he could simply win Florida and Pennsylvania or Florida and Michigan. Biden's Florida lead is currently at 4.5%.
My point is, that Biden's path seems decidedly easier than Trump's. Although Trump-supporting pundits are still denying that the picture is bleak for their candidate, to do so they have to ignore a remarkable mountain of very-consistent data. They mostly hang their hopes on what they call the enthusiasm-gap. They suggest that Trump's supporters are far more enthusiastic and therefore far more likely to vote. In addition, they say that Trump's get-out-the-vote effort in key states is much stronger.
* * *
Two large demographics in which Trump's performance in 2020 has declined drastically compared to 2016 appear to be among older voters and among white women.
From Tim Alberta at Politico:
"Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive, a longtime party operator who lives in a state Trump carried by double digits. He told me the polling he was seeing there was something out of a nightmare; these were numbers he never expected to see in his lifetime."
* * *
See also:
A wave of polls paints a dire picture for Trump
Does Trump actually want to win this election?
No comments:
Post a Comment