27 Days and Counting

 Several new polls dropped yesterday: 

• CNN (Biden +16)

• Survey/USA (Biden +10)

• JTN (Biden +8)

• CNBC (Biden +10)

The average lead for Biden over the last ten polls is exactly 9%, but the more recent polls show a clear trend in Biden's favor. Of the last eleven polls, only 1 showed Biden's lead below 7% (Investor's Business Daily). What seems clear is that, barring a sudden change in the next 3 weeks, we may well be looking at a Biden landslide.

Even some pro-Trump outlets are beginning to concede the point. Sometimes they attribute it all to the bias of the pollsters, but that's nonsense. Each of these pollsters has a vested interest in getting it right. Sometimes the pundits cling to the notion of an invisible group of Trump voters, too shy to speak to pollsters. Opinions vary on whether the "shy Trump voter" really exists or not, and how many there may be. This article explains why the phenomenon, which definitely had an impact in 2016, will likely not repeat itself in this go-round.

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Trump's stage-managed return from the hospital on Monday was clearly designed to buoy the hearts of the Trumpian masses. His 23-second balcony salute (I believe he was saluting the departing helicopter) provoked a response from the pro-Trump pundits with words like "courageous" and "triumphant," while anti-Trump pundits made comparisons to Mussolini (Il Donald) and to Central American caudillos.

Meanwhile, 34 members of Trump's circle have contracted the disease.

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See also:

The NYT Poll Tracker

Financial Times Poll Tracker

Trump is Shockingly Bad at This