The total number of early votes so far is 82 million. More early votes have already been cast in the state of Hawaii than all votes in that state in 2016. It seems likely that the national total will reach 100 million before the end.
In the RCP polling average, Biden's lead nationally stands at 7.4, but his average lead in the battleground states is down to 3.2%, the lowest it's been in some time. In fact, RCP has moved a couple of formerly Biden-leaning states into the "Toss Up" category. They estimate now 216 Electoral College votes for Biden, 125 for Trump, and 197 toss-ups.
High turnout, the pundits say, favors the Dems. And this is certainly looking like a high turnout year. The youth vote, for example, seems to be turning out in higher numbers. Put a check mark in your "Favors Biden" column, right below "all the polls."
Nevertheless, "Conservative Punditry" is really turning up the spigot for stories with headlines like, "Never Mind the Polls, Trump Is Winning," and "Biden Is Toast." It seems that pundits on both sides see it as their responsibility to maintain optimism at all costs (meaning, cost to their credibility).
"Liberal Punditry" is doing much the same, but I'd say with somewhat better reasoning. Still, there's been some very good economic news lately, and people speculate that the street violence and looting in Philadelphia, a key swing state, will drive more undecided voters toward Trump, who styles himself the law & order candidate.
In my world, Dem voters seem nervous, worried that they're about to endure a repeat of 2016. Most of this is just emotional guardedness, and quite understandable. But Derek Thompson, writing in The Atlantic, gives 5 very good reasons why 2020 will be nothing like 2016.
- The pollsters have corrected for their error in 2016
- Many fewer undecided voters this time around
- No Comey-like October Surprise (the Hunter Biden story just hasn't done the trick)
- District-level polling, which signaled a Clinton collapse in 2016, are this year indicating, if anything, more strength for Biden even than the national polls would suggest.
- The global pandemic.
No comments:
Post a Comment