Yesterday I speculated that we may see a narrowing of the gap between Biden and Trump in the polls, with reluctant Republicans "coming home." Several recent polls put Biden's lead at 5 or less (though that includes Rasmussen, which gives Trump a +1 advantage, and which can probably be dismissed as an outlier). On the other hand YouGov and Reuters have Biden by 11% & 10%, CNN by 12%. The overall average of recent polling stands at Biden +7.5.
Plus, 76.5 million people have already voted, as of this morning's count.
Many Trump-supporting pundits are publishing pieces this week about how they know that Trump is going to win the election. For this to happen they have to dismiss not just a few polls, but the entire polling enterprise, which they claim is based on false premises. The evidence in favor of their optimistic conclusions usually have to do with yard signs, rally sizes, and something they overheard in the check-out line at Kroger (or something). In other words, my anecdotes, coupled with my hyper-sensitive political antennae, trumps all the polls in the world.
Well, you can tell a hack when they dismiss all counter-evidence out-of-hand. I think this anecdotal evidence may have some weight, but how much? I think it might be worth point or two in certain states, but I remain confident of a Biden victory. The only thing I wonder about now is, how large?
A narrow victory (in the Electoral College) will not only lead to a rush of legal challenges, it might mean the Republicans hold onto the Senate. On the other hand, it won't be seen as a repudiation of Trumpism (nativism, tariffs, etc.). In fact, one wonders if any sort of loss, even a landslide of Reagan vs. Mondale proportions, will result in a repudiation. Trumpists, after all, have a tendency to dismiss the data they don't like or posit conspiracy theories to explain them away.
I personally wish for a strong, conservative party to act as a counterweight to the worst excesses of the Democrats. But the current Republican leadership, over-committed to the creepy Don, has no credibility.
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Read also:
Getting Past Partisan Blinders
Man was made to strive (a hilarious piece apropos of nothing)
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