Joe Biden's lead in the RCP polling average continues to hover around 8%, and as of this morning over 57 million early votes have been registered. The battleground states are much closer, and yet consistently lean Biden.
I had a conversation with an old friend yesterday, who concerning the election remains among the undecided. I know a lot of pundits seem to be amazed that there should be any undecideds left (about 6-7% of the electorate in the most recent polls), but I completely understand it. I suspect that these are people who hesitate to put their stamp of approval on another 4 years of Trump, but who deeply disagree with much of Biden's agenda.
I have a hunch that some of these people will not vote at all (a practice I find much more defensible than most), some will vote third party, and many will in the end reluctantly vote for Trump (with the abortion issue being decisive for them). A smaller number, I think, will go with Biden at the last.
My friend put it this way: "I'm torn between a bad man on the one hand, and bad policy on the other." I'm guessing that that's a good nutshell description of many of these undecided voters. If the undecideds largely flow toward Trump in many of the close battleground states, a few of those states might slip into the Trump column and make for a much closer Electoral College result.
Trump supporters on my Facebook timeline and the Trump supporting voices in the media seem to be determinedly optimistic about their candidate's chances, at least publicly. They either posit shy Trump voters that pollsters are not accounting for, or they reference the rally-sizes of the competing candidates, or some outlier poll, or a positive trend in voter registration in one or two states. In other words, any straw in the wind will do. Meanwhile, they studiously ignore or explain away the vast preponderance of polling data that does not suit their agendas.
They are either marvelously perceptive or self-deluding sock-puppets for their hero. Some people seem to think that once you make a decision to vote for a particular candidate, you have signed an invisible contract to always remain publicly optimistic about the candidate's chances (lest you give hope to the opposition!), and to never be the least bit skeptical about a thing their candidate says (again, so as not to give aide and comfort to the enemy). We saw this phenomenon during the Obama years and again during the Trump years.
I want to say to these people: there is no contract, and you don't need to cede sovereignty over your political thoughts to anyone. You are probably not a member of the campaign, nor do you have much influence (you're not some sort of opinion-shaper or thought-leader). So go ahead, exercise your right to be a free-thinking independent cuss.
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Read also:
New Swing-State Data Shows Massive Democratic Early-Vote Lead
An Appeal to Millenials: Don't Waste Your Vote on the Lesser of Two Evils
The New York Sun's Endorsement of Donald Trump for President
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